Friday, April 11, 2008

JSOnline: Home sales drop - Transactions, prices fall in most counties; condos hit hardest

According to our Metro Multiple Listing Service (MLS), the first quarter results are in: overall activity is lower and slower than what was reported last year.

I love statistics. Most of what I do every day is analyze the housing market and report any changes.

But I have concerns about the statistics used to report the state of the housing market.

The biggest concern I have for relying too much on statistics is one must know the sample taken. The statistics used to support this article’s position is the entire Metro MLS area (which includes all of the counties that make up Southeastern Wisconsin) and includes single-family homes, two-family homes, multi-family properties, condominiums, commercial properties, business operations, vacant land, etc.). This is a very broad sample. I don’t mean to single out municipalities, but do you think a home seller in Greendale cares about the Brown Deer market? Do you think a downtown Milwaukee condo owner cares about the business operations of a business owner in Hartford? So then, why do we lump all of these “sub” markets into one number?

This article also compares the overall condo market to the overall single-family home market and has asked real estate agents to weigh in on this topic. One agent commented that condos are very hard to sell and that there are many to choose from. This agent also suggests that younger people don’t want to be tied down to condominium rules and regulations and association dues.


Here’s what I am noticing in the downtown condo market:

  • Buyers have definitely re-emerged in the real estate market.
  • I am witnessing shorter days on market (DOM) figures - which most of it has to do with realistic sellers pricing their homes competitively from the very beginning. Sellers are quite aware of the reality of our condo market.


According to this article, the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) expects sales to be flat until fall.

I don’t always agree with what is reported in the newspaper. However, I do agree with this statement. This year, many have asked me how my business is doing. In comparison to where I was this time last year, I find myself working for many clients and customers. Although it is still a buyer’s market, I do see most of my business coming from buyers. This tells me that sellers are positioning themselves to wait out this frustrating market. As I said, sellers in this market are pricing their homes more competitively and many are being successful in selling their homes faster this year than in the past. There are a few downtown condominium developers who are experiencing financial woes (The Franklin at East Pointe, Landmark on the Lake, First Place on the River, Wisconsin Tower). There is some speculating that some apartment conversions may return to apartments (which should help dry up our supply of downtown condos). Between competitive pricing, delayed condominium developments, possible apartment conversions reverting back to apartments, and buyers re-emerging at a higher pace than last year, I predict that housing prices will slowly begin to rebound. As the NAR says, we may not see a sudden change in housing prices, but I do agree that we will have something positive to report by the third quarter of 2008. Therefore, for those buyers waiting for the bottom to drop out, you might have waited a tad too long. I believe we are starting to see improvements in the market and housing prices are beginning to shift.


If you’re thinking of buying your next home or selling your home, please don’t hesitate to call me at (414) 412-7980.

Joanne Cleaver, writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, writes more about the first quarter numbers. Click here to read the entire article>>>


------

Labels:

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home