Milwaukee Condo & Real Estate Scene

Downtown Milwaukee Condo Market: Looking Back on 2011

The real estate market continues to keep me on my toes. The word I would use to describe the real estate market in 2011: Encouraging.

In this year-in-review analysis, I will explore fair market values, inventory levels, sales activity, and mortgage rates. I will also share my thoughts on the real estate market for 2012.

To begin, I will analyze fair market values (FMV) in the Downtown Milwaukee condominium market. Although this analysis pertains to one specific segment in Milwaukee Metro, this analysis can be used to review other segments.

Downtown Milwaukee is comprised of several neighborhood markets: Bay View, Brewers Hill, East Town, Halyard Park, Lower East Side, Riverwest, Third Ward, Upper East Side, Walker's Point, and Westown.

Since January 2008, Average Fair Market Value or AFMV (on a price-per-square-foot basis) declined during two distinct periods throughout Downtown Milwaukee: March 2009 - March 2010 and January 2011 - December 2011. The real estate market experienced a short-term spike between March 2010 and June 2010. If you recall, the final deadline for the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit expired in April 2010 (closed no later than June 30, 2010) which accelerated sales transactions in 2010.

Location, Location, Location: Not surprisingly, the affordability index increases the further away you move from the center of Downtown Milwaukee. The AFMV is highest in Milwaukee's East Town, Lower East Side, Third Ward, and Walker's Point neighborhoods. The AFMV is lowest in Milwaukee's Bay View, Brewer's Hill, Halyard Park, Riverwest, Upper East Side, and Westown neighborhoods. The Third Ward remains one of the most desirable neighborhoods in Downtown Milwaukee (hence, the highest AFMV).




During 2011, AFMV declined slightly for all neighborhoods in Downtown Milwaukee. This slight decline suggests that AFMV is beginning to level off. Why are fair market values leveling off?




One factor that influences FMV is supply. In real estate, supply includes "Active Listings". In this analysis, I researched the condominium market in the 53202 zip code (includes East Town, Lower East Side, and Third Ward neighborhoods). Between January 2010 and September 2010, Active Listings was holding steady around 500 per month. Since September 2010, inventory of condominium units in 53202 has been steadily declining. Since June 2011, fewer sellers entered the market which is limiting our available inventory.

Another factor affecting supply is sales activity. Since January 2010, condominium units have been selling at a constant rate each month (between 15-25 units per month). Flat sales activity during this analysis (January 2010 - December 2011) suggests that buyers are purchasing condominium units regardless of mortgage rates, first-time home buyer credits, etc. Notice that "Sold Listings" matched "New Listings" in December 2011. This suggests that the pendulum is moving closer to a balanced market.

Sales activity remains constant. New listings are decreasing. Based on these two factors, overall supply is decreasing which is causing FMV to level off. Why are listings decreasing? Based on my knowledge of this market segment, prospective sellers are either staying in their condominium units and waiting for prices to improve or are choosing to rent their condominium units and waiting for prices to improve. Either way, today's prospective seller is choosing to wait for the market to improve.

At one point in time, inventory levels for condominium units in 53202 peaked at 58 months worth of inventory (November 2010). This is a highly-skewed Buyer's Market. In other words, it would take the market 58 months to sell off the inventory levels reported at that point in time. The market experienced a dip in FMV during this period as supply significantly outweighed demand. Since December 2010, inventory levels have declined between 14 and 30 months of inventory. This is still a Buyer's Market; but much more balanced than 2010 levels.




Suggestions for Buyers: Keep an eye on mortgage rates. With FMV leveling off, buyers should focus on the stock market, bond market, and mortgage rates. Mortgage rates were fairly flat between January 2009 and March 2010; declined between April 2010 and November 2010; increased quickly in December 2010; remained flat between December 2010 and April 2011; and decreased steadily since May 2011 to our lowest level reported in December 2011.




Since August 2011, rates have been bouncing around 4.000% - showing greater instability. Fluctuations in mortgage rates are due to economic conditions - here and abroad. Keep an eye on economic situations in Europe. Is consumer confidence showing strength here in the U.S.? Are investors moving money from bonds to safer investments like stocks? If investors choose to move money into stocks, look out for mortgage rates to increase.




What can we expect in 2012?

Supply: I expect inventory levels will increase during our traditional "busy season". I expect banks will add more foreclosures to our inventory levels. I expect more Short Sales will appear on our books as well.

Demand: I expect that sales activity will remain constant throughout 2012.

Fair Market Values: I expect FMV will decline slightly in 2012 - continuing to show signs of leveling off. Distressed properties (i.e. foreclosures, Short Sales) will continue to keep FMV flat during 2012.

Wildcard: Mortgage rates. Buyers who are in the market to purchase real estate should be cognizant of mortgage rates. Historically, mortgage rates spike high and fast once consumer confidence returns. For those who are timing the market, I expect mortgage rates will remain fairly flat during the first half of 2012.


Do you have any questions regarding the real estate market? Feel free to leave a comment? May you and your family enjoy a prosperous 2012!

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Labels: Finance, Real Estate, Shorewest

posted by David Ray @ 12:28 PM